tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2903618192803822774.post1465742084631972813..comments2023-11-05T06:59:47.549-05:00Comments on StockMarketAlchemy: Quick Look at SPY - Over Bought Below 20 Day MAPete Birchlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03979249321821901449noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2903618192803822774.post-5457822640233666772009-07-13T21:47:37.428-04:002009-07-13T21:47:37.428-04:00Volume in general is not my area of expertise as f...Volume in general is not my area of expertise as far as history goes, but I can rehearse what I have gleaned from reliable sources.<br /><br />From my understanding there is not enough of a "seasonal" drop off in volume in the summer historically to attribute it to that alone.<br /><br />From studies I have seen, waning volume in a rally tends to lead to weakness, but we are not necessarily in a rally now.<br /><br />From comparisons to prior new bull markets, the current continued tapering off in volume does not seem to "fit" for a first leg up in a bull market. The market doesn't necessarily have to explode off the lows in huge volume, but in past bulls it has been able to sustain or pick up steam several months into a rally.<br /><br />There may be some more fundamental reasons for the decline. I saw a story that proprietary firm codes and secure info was hacked/stolen from Goldman Sachs a week or so ago, and from what I gather, their volume dropped off substantially in recent days. They are the largest volume trading firm on the NYSE. So when the bulk of volume is program trading from these big firms, a drop off for some off the wall reason like that might make more than a blip.<br /><br />I don't know how much to read into volume right now, but it seems pretty clear from both a pattern and a sentiment perspective that we are not that close to any intermediate term low yet.Pete Birchlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03979249321821901449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2903618192803822774.post-66981434138299092862009-07-13T19:48:21.618-04:002009-07-13T19:48:21.618-04:00hi pete,
any thoughts on the meaning behind what ...hi pete,<br /><br />any thoughts on the meaning behind what appears to be declining volume? or this the typical decline in volume for summer?<br /><br />thanks. -bbnoreply@blogger.com