Bonds, Interest Rates, and Commodities Technical Analysis

Bonds, Interest Rates, and Commodities Technical Analysis
This bond market update video covers multiple time frame technical analysis of the TLT etf as well as the 10 year and 30 year US treasury yields.  I give opinion on chart patterns and indicators of what to look for for trade and investment opportunities.


Also I discuss the correlation between interest rates and commodities and take a detailed look at a harmonic pattern on the DBC etf which is displaying a trade opportunity.
Some of the techniques such as price logic, divergence patterns , and reversal patterns are taught in my free stock analysis course.

OEX Put/Call Ratio Still High and US Dollar Moving Higher - Possible Recipe For Further Declines in Stocks

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The last 2 days have seen mild price gains on successively declining volume.  This is not the typical bottoming  reversal pattern in a correction.  For short term traders I view this as a new shorting set-up

On the option front the OEX put/call ratio remains high which is typical more bearish for the market than bullish.  These index traders have a "smart money" pattern of option trading which is to increase put activity as the market rises.

On the other hand, both the equity and total put/call volume ratios remain low and have had very muted rises on this 3.5 week correction so far.  For more confidence that a corrective bottom is near, I would want to see this ratio higher as measured by strategies I have shown many times before on the blog and in my free course.

Price action is the final say of analysis and so for a corrective bottom to occur and have some indication of a new uptrend we would need to see a higher high than the recent swing high on 8-26-13.  But understand from the recent videos I've made that the weekly currents on the technicals are only just turning down.  MACD is still above 0 and just confirmed a divergence pattern sell signal.  Stochastics has another 2-3 weeks still before possibly being oversold.  The parabolic SAR has not even triggered a weekly sell at this point.  So while on a short term basis the currents are modestly oversold and could sustain a multi day rebound, the larger currents are down and I think will likely continue to pressure stocks for at least a couple more weeks.

Click on Chart to Enlarge

I have not updated much on the US Dollar since it broke out of a triangle chart pattern in February.  And since that time frame it has had a markedly different correlation with the stock indexes than the consistent negative correlation for the last 4-5 years.  The chart above shows the ratio of US Dollar/S&P 500 which lets us at least monitor the statistical relationship between them and we can see from the green lines that when the dollar has spiked outside the bollinger bands have been when the significant corrections have taken place.  And notice that the ratio currently would need to see more dollar strength and stock weakness to bring the ratio outside the bands.

Click on Chart to Enlarge

This chart is the US Dollar index itself.  Of note is that the recent correction took more than twice as long as the prior advance and has not retraced all the advance.  Also notice the divergence pattern in stochastics at the recent bottom.  These facts couple together suggest to me that the price logic is still favoring a bullish trend in the US Dollar.  Today triggered a daily SAR buy signal and so we may see some follow through to this rally attempt in the dollar.  What is less clear from the correlation at this point is what impact that will have on stocks.

Stock Market Technical Analysis 8-27-13

Stock Market Technical Analysis 8-27-13

This stock market update covers the QQQ and S&P 500 both daily and weekly time frames.  I review the price logic of the market and several indicators including stochastics, MACD, and parabolic SAR.  I expect that this market correction will continue further down from these levels before a sustained rally occurs.
For more FREE information on how to use "price logic" to understand market trend and trend reversals, you can check out my free eCourse which will help you become a better trader and analyst.
Click HERE for more info
Enjoy the video.
Pete

Non Confirmation in Stock Market Indexes

8-26-13 Stock Market Update
Check out a brief video I made today covering the probable meaning of today's non-confirmation in a move to new highs in the QQQ but not in the other indexes (DIA, SPY, etc.).
The video also covers total put/call ratio and the VIX and the clues they are potentially giving us.
Also this is a reminder that tonight at midnight the FREE TRIAL OFFER for my website services and education will close.
Click HERE to find out more.
All the best to your trading.
Pete

Bullish Harmonic Pattern Set-Ups in Energy Stocks

Earlier today I recorded a follow up video covering some bullish pattern set-ups in some energy and materials stocks.  This update looks in particular at undervalued stocks as measured by the price/book ratio.

Watch the Video Here

I hope you enjoy the video.

Pete

New Trades Triggered Today

Just a heads up and reminder that there is currently a FREE trial offer on the Harmonic Trading Stock Selection service and the Integrative Harmonic Trading course that extends through August 26th.

Today 2 new trade orders were placed and one filled so far in the HTSS service.  The tickers are SNDK and FTI.  Currently you have an opportunity to see inside the service and follow the trades for 1-4 weeks depending on the service option you choose.  You can find more info by using the link below.

The current market environment is interesting in that commodities and stocks are running relatively independently right now and there are some very nice buying opportunities with many great patterns showing up in the energy related markets, and also there are a large number of short selling patterns that are ripe with several already triggering sell signals last week.

If you did not get a chance to watch the recent market update video and details of the services then click on the link below.

Watch The Market Update Video From  8-21-13

I hope you enjoy the video.  

All the best to your trading,

Pete

Stock Market Update and FREE Trial Offer

I recorded a new video today covering technical analysis of the stock market as well as several stocks that are perfect candidates for trading opportunities using the Integrative Harmonic Trading methodology.  

In this video I also give you an opportunity to try out my services for FREE for up to 1 month! 

CLICK HERE to Watch the video

The video specifically covers CAVM, TXT, PLCE, FSLR, BBRY, and the S&P 500.

• What is the MACD indicator telling us?
• What are the VIX and put/call ratios telling us about the current market correction?
• If stocks continue to decline, how far can we expect them to go?

Find out answers to these questions in the video and get ready to learn some useful techniques for your trading.

Enjoy the video.

CLICK HERE to Watch the video

All the best to your trading,

Pete Birchler