Update

The S&P 500 did erase the prior little wave down in less time than it took to form, confirming that the uptrend is still intact. Sentiment is excessively optimistic, as it has been for some time. So it is hard for me to imagine that this is kicking off a new significant leg up in stocks, but until proven otherwise that is what price is saying. The benchmark for me is the April 18th low. If that gets exceeded on a decline, then I would take that to indicate that price is making a significant top.

It seems as though the current moves up in gold, silver, and oil will have to break before stocks break significantly. The US dollar has broke through a significant old low bringing out some bearish sentiment. A reversal higher from these levels to above the Nov 2009 lows would be a good intermediate to long term bottoming sign. But the next support would be the 2008 lows. I think either of these are likely reversal points. A break of the 2008 lows seems like it would be a MAJOR psychological capitulation point, possibly leading to a large double bottom chart pattern.

The cotton ETF trade, BAL, is off and running now, and it seems very likely that cotton has seen a major high.

I believe that the grain complex is near breaking down as well. I may recommend a short on DBA soon. The sell offs in several commodities should be pretty dramatic after the high is in. It looks most likely that the high is in for DBA already, but I would like to see a few more days before suggesting an entry on it.

For those who follow the metals markets, silver is only pennies away from its all time high in 1980. I expect that high will get exceeded at least slightly before a major high is in. But it could come down dramatically for several months if it fails at that high.