SLV Update and DBA Entry

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The silver has provided strong confirmation that a significant high is in place. See the notes on the chart above. I would expect this to fall to 26 or maybe further. I would like to see a little rally and a swing high in silver then a break to new lows for the move in order to move the stop down.

The DBA short trade was triggered today as well. Hopefully this will provide quick follow through as well, though with a few days of weakness behind us, that is probably less likely.

Based on the CoT data, I think some of the commodity markets could be in for major declines. While it probably sounds absurd, I think the implied psychology of the data on crude oil would suggest that a move below the 2009 lows is probable in the next bear market in oil. So we may need to look at a short in oil in the future too.

I don't expect the stock market to be quite as weak as commodities, but it should weaken also. Expect a move up in the US Dollar index very soon. It looks like it is consolidating and finding an intermediate bottom at this level.