9-13-13 Stock Market Update Video

 Stock Market Update Video
This stock market video update covers multiple time frame technical analysis of the MACD indicator.  I highlight divegences developing on various time frames and note a set-up for a potential short trade based on the weekly and daily MACD formation at the current time frame.
Equity put/call ratios are reviewed and I highlight a recent signal of complacency in the options market this past week, which may be a caution against expecting sustained upward momentum from this point.

Mixed Currents In Stocks 9-4-13

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This chart shows a striking bullish divergence on the MACD in SPY.  So from this time frame it would be sensible to go long here with a stop below the 8/28/13 low and a target of the August high.

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The 15 min time frame is not showing any bearish divergence yet which suggests that price will move at least slightly higher before possibly continuing a larger time frame down trend.

The CBOE total put/call ratio today came in at 0.77 which is rather low.  The ISE call/put ratio came in very high, and the equity put/call came in at 0.54 2 days in a row which is on the low side.  All these reading could be interpreted as persistent complacency in the options market despite just a 2 day rally in stocks.  Also volume came in lower today compared to yesterday which means that the add on to yesterday's strength was on waning activity.  All these could be signs of a probable corrective rally which could be a shorting opportunity.  But price action holds the final answer.

In a case like these if looking to short then I would look for a bearish divergence pattern to develop on the 15 min technicals at a bear minimum before taking any sell signals to short.  Given the indicator set-up I think a 30 min chart may even need to develop some divergence before this attempt stalls out.

Situations like this can be tricky because there is no clear market trend and different time frames are mixed on the signals and set-ups they are giving us.  So there is no necessity to trade if it is not obvious what to do given one's method.

Bonds, Interest Rates, and Commodities Technical Analysis

Bonds, Interest Rates, and Commodities Technical Analysis
This bond market update video covers multiple time frame technical analysis of the TLT etf as well as the 10 year and 30 year US treasury yields.  I give opinion on chart patterns and indicators of what to look for for trade and investment opportunities.


Also I discuss the correlation between interest rates and commodities and take a detailed look at a harmonic pattern on the DBC etf which is displaying a trade opportunity.
Some of the techniques such as price logic, divergence patterns , and reversal patterns are taught in my free stock analysis course.

OEX Put/Call Ratio Still High and US Dollar Moving Higher - Possible Recipe For Further Declines in Stocks

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The last 2 days have seen mild price gains on successively declining volume.  This is not the typical bottoming  reversal pattern in a correction.  For short term traders I view this as a new shorting set-up

On the option front the OEX put/call ratio remains high which is typical more bearish for the market than bullish.  These index traders have a "smart money" pattern of option trading which is to increase put activity as the market rises.

On the other hand, both the equity and total put/call volume ratios remain low and have had very muted rises on this 3.5 week correction so far.  For more confidence that a corrective bottom is near, I would want to see this ratio higher as measured by strategies I have shown many times before on the blog and in my free course.

Price action is the final say of analysis and so for a corrective bottom to occur and have some indication of a new uptrend we would need to see a higher high than the recent swing high on 8-26-13.  But understand from the recent videos I've made that the weekly currents on the technicals are only just turning down.  MACD is still above 0 and just confirmed a divergence pattern sell signal.  Stochastics has another 2-3 weeks still before possibly being oversold.  The parabolic SAR has not even triggered a weekly sell at this point.  So while on a short term basis the currents are modestly oversold and could sustain a multi day rebound, the larger currents are down and I think will likely continue to pressure stocks for at least a couple more weeks.

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I have not updated much on the US Dollar since it broke out of a triangle chart pattern in February.  And since that time frame it has had a markedly different correlation with the stock indexes than the consistent negative correlation for the last 4-5 years.  The chart above shows the ratio of US Dollar/S&P 500 which lets us at least monitor the statistical relationship between them and we can see from the green lines that when the dollar has spiked outside the bollinger bands have been when the significant corrections have taken place.  And notice that the ratio currently would need to see more dollar strength and stock weakness to bring the ratio outside the bands.

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This chart is the US Dollar index itself.  Of note is that the recent correction took more than twice as long as the prior advance and has not retraced all the advance.  Also notice the divergence pattern in stochastics at the recent bottom.  These facts couple together suggest to me that the price logic is still favoring a bullish trend in the US Dollar.  Today triggered a daily SAR buy signal and so we may see some follow through to this rally attempt in the dollar.  What is less clear from the correlation at this point is what impact that will have on stocks.

Stock Market Technical Analysis 8-27-13

Stock Market Technical Analysis 8-27-13

This stock market update covers the QQQ and S&P 500 both daily and weekly time frames.  I review the price logic of the market and several indicators including stochastics, MACD, and parabolic SAR.  I expect that this market correction will continue further down from these levels before a sustained rally occurs.
For more FREE information on how to use "price logic" to understand market trend and trend reversals, you can check out my free eCourse which will help you become a better trader and analyst.
Click HERE for more info
Enjoy the video.
Pete

Non Confirmation in Stock Market Indexes

8-26-13 Stock Market Update
Check out a brief video I made today covering the probable meaning of today's non-confirmation in a move to new highs in the QQQ but not in the other indexes (DIA, SPY, etc.).
The video also covers total put/call ratio and the VIX and the clues they are potentially giving us.
Also this is a reminder that tonight at midnight the FREE TRIAL OFFER for my website services and education will close.
Click HERE to find out more.
All the best to your trading.
Pete

Bullish Harmonic Pattern Set-Ups in Energy Stocks

Earlier today I recorded a follow up video covering some bullish pattern set-ups in some energy and materials stocks.  This update looks in particular at undervalued stocks as measured by the price/book ratio.

Watch the Video Here

I hope you enjoy the video.

Pete