Update on Last Post- General Market Stuff

For those who read this consistently, I wanted to clarify and update a few things regarding my outlook and pass along some more information.


First, I don't think that this past week was the end of this bear market. In the last post I mentioned that I think we are near a major bottom in the markets though. In a bear market I would consider this to be a bottom that lasts several months and leads to a relatively large price advance (say....20-30%).


Now I wanted to pass along some information. I read a post on another site today looking at what has happened to markets in the past when they have had short-selling bans imposed by the government. The pattern that seemed to emerge was a severe sharp price gain followed by either some stagnation and then declines, or just gave way right to sharp declines from the end of the sharp price advance.


My thought for the last several months was that the market would go below the July lows, which it did. However, I had thought that this leg down would go deeper than it has so far. I was rethinking that after Thursday Friday (and still am to some degree), but the historical precedent of this type of situation now makes me think it is still possible, and probably somewhat likely that the market will go lower over the next several weeks yet.


Hopefully there will be another clear opportunity for me to recommend a short-term trade soon, so I will keep you posted.


Pete