Thursday, February 19, 2009

BGZ Trade Exit

I am recommending exiting (selling) the current 1/2 BGZ trade today ASAP (with a market order). I will use the 12:30 ET price of BGZ for the blog exit price, which currently is about a 3%
gain.

As indicated in the most recent post, keep GTC limit orders in place to buy BGZ at 67.50, but this time with a normal dollar amount instead of a half-sized amount.


In addition to the gap filling study I referenced yesterday, whenever there has been a down day (like yesterday) right after a <10% up issues day (like Tuesday) the next 4 days showed a positive return every time (8 out of 8) with an average return of 6.1%. That would put us right up into the same area as the 3% gap down occurred. So there are two studies showing an extremely consistent tendency for prices to move back to that area. With the short-term model oversold, I don't want to sit through a big market advance on this trade.


Pete

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