Sunday, June 13, 2010

Watch for a failed breakout of 1105 on SPX

Click on Chart to Enlarge

Following up with the recent pattern related post, It seems most likely to me that an upward flat pattern is forming. Typically the wave c will take about half the time as a+b if they are considerably different in time consumption. That would make Monday or Tuesday the ideal ending time frame. Also I would expect the price to move up more near the 1105 area on this one.

There is a subtlety of this pattern that I don't like, but in some other indexes it looks real nice (Russell 2000 and XOI oil index for example. For an analog pattern look at the post 2008 Oct 10 crash low pattern and at the MACD and RSI (5) and price formation to see the similarity. As support for this idea, the daily MACD does not yet have a nice bullish divergence, but would with another sharp leg down to new lows.

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