Saturday, July 3, 2010

S&P Update

Click on Chart to Enlarge

Looking at the major stock indexes, the daily bollinger bands are expanding with prices riding the lower band. If you look at a lot of charts and study the bollinger band configurations, what usually is the case is that the market will sharply decline until the top band turns down. Then when the bottom band turns up, you almost always have stabilization and some form of bottom.
So until we see the top band turn down, this decline may continue and may even accelerate as the wider the bands get, the more volatile the action is.

On the bullish side, the daily MACD shown on the chart has a nice bullish divergence as prices have made new correction lows but the indicator has not. So if price do stabilize, then the set-up looks pretty nice for a short to intermediate term bullish trade. But beware, because if price falls below 980 on the S&P then I think we will certainly see 950 in short order and maybe even 870 rather quickly.

Keep in mind that on weekly charts there are no indications of oversold technicals yet. Based on the bollinger band configuration I think we will see fireworks :) next week, but it could be either direction. A strong and overdue rebound, or a continuation/acceleration of the decline.

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