SPY Analysis

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The chart above is SPY with a 50 day MA and some dashed horizontal lines at recent unfilled gaps. I would expect the current rally to at least fill the recent large gap down before reversing to the downside. The recent sell off triggered some signals that would suggest a 1-2 week minimum decent rally. So I think the rally may be likely to push back toward the prior gap down from March 10th.

The VIX/VXV ratio poked up to about 1.09 last week which suggests at least a short-term low based off of past data.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator got reasonably oversold this past week, however, at basically every other significant low in this bull market, it showed a minor or major bullish divergence before a lasting rally. It did not show any divergence yet on this decline. So we may expect at a minimum another push to the lows or lower with some improved breadth before a sustained advance.

The inability of the market to add gains to the gap ups at the end of this past week, also may be indication that the selling hasn't run its course yet even in the short term.