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See the chart above for notes on silver. Based on the averages of historical situations we are likely to see lower lows in silver. However, based on a closest fit analog which is the 1974 silver bear market, the bear market low would be in place now, but with an expected retest of the lows in coming months.
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The red box on this gold chart shows where approximately 80% of all bear market rallies based on time and percentage retracement of the preceding leg down would be expected to top. With today's rally we are already reaching the upper price range of that box. So, we should likely expect some further time consumption with likely at least slight further highs. My expectation based on price making such a deep advance already is that we would likely top in the earlier portion of that time range. Also I expect it to be a great put option buying time as this high completes. I am looking at April OTM puts on GLD with some historical precendents suggesting a move into the 1300's likely to follow this rally.
There is NO historical precedent for this being a completed correction or bear market in gold at this point.
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