Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Leg Up Topped in Stocks?

The declines today in widespread equity markets were significant from my point of view.  The price logic in some world markets and in the Russell 2000 have shifted to downward configuration on hourly and some daily time frames.

The Russell 2000 gapped down and opened below its upward trendline off the Oct 2011 lows.  Gap downs below trendlines are often significant where a simple move to or below a trendline may not be.

Also, both gold and oil are positioned on the daily chart with low closes below the lower bollinger band and the bollinger bands are expanding.  This configuration has the potential for sharp declines, though possibly short-lived.

I expect further correction in stocks from these levels.  I expect the US Dollar index to rise and the Euro to fall.  The upward move today in the dollar index provides some reasonable early confirmation of a completed correction of the upward trend.  A move above the Feb highs in the Dollar index within the next week would be excellent further confirmation of a new leg up in effect.

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