Thursday, October 18, 2012

Short-Term Overbought - Nice Short Trade Set-Up

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The hourly MACD on SPY has now moved back up to overbought and the move has been somewhat weaker than the recent decline thus far.  The deep retracement of the recent move down in stocks, suggests that the upward price pattern has not completed yet, but the slower upward moves suggest it is weakening.  Combined with overbought technicals and bearish divergence, I think the best option is to sell the highs with expectation of further correction in stocks, or a failed breakout of the recent highs.

The MACD may need to make some bearish divergence before price turns down, but a trade opportunity is probably close at hand.

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