Tuesday, April 23, 2013

SPY Update 4-23-13

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The 15 min chart of SPY shows that the MACD got as extended to the upside as it has been in the last month.  Now with the consolidation and pullback this afternoon, it is setting the stage for a divergence if price makes a higher high than Tuesday, but the MACD stays below today's peak.

Price has been advancing at pace to completely retrace the recent decline in less time than it took to form, but would need to be back at a new all time high before Friday morning to confirm the upward price dominance.

AAPL reported earnings after the bell on Tuesday, but did not move significantly in the after hours trading.  The structural sentiment back drop is not favorable for a major upside reversal or move on this announcement in my opinion.  Call open interest dominates compared to put, and there is very little short interest to create forced buying on a gap up.  Additionally, the weekly momentum is still strongly down with no divergence or basing present to create an ideal chart formation for a bottoming pattern.

At this point, the market is stretched to the upside in the short-term, but there is no clear confirmation that a downtrend has begun.  However, a break of last week's low without making a new all time high would be probable confirmation of a downtrend.


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