Thursday, May 23, 2013

What the Current Pullback Means

The decline off Wednesday's high to the early Thursday low, is the fastest rate of decline for many months in stocks. This will typically mean one of two things in my opinion.  Either it will form a low very quickly and result in a consolidation and likely higher highs, or it is the kickoff to a more significant correction than has been seen in several months.

 If the correction now becomes larger in % than the pullbacks since Nov, then we would have good logical confirmation that a correction is in force.

Given the sharp bearish divergence pattern on the hourly technical indicators at the recent high and the hourly MACD signal line only now crossing below 0, it seems likely that we will see further downside - even if at a minimum we see a small consolidation or rally followed by a move to slightly lower lows like we saw in February.

If we do see prices continue significantly lower today or tomorrow, that would also be a hint that this may be a more serious break than what we've seen the last several months.

I'll update as appropriate.

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