High Risk In Stocks Over the Next 2-4 Weeks

The current push to new highs on Friday in the SPY, has created a signal in my analysis which is infrequent and has lead to about a 3 times greater MAX loss than MAX gain over the next 2-4 weeks over the last 22 years of SPY data (this is all I have for testing purposes).

Without getting into the details of what the signal is, it is basically picking up a time when prices are making new highs, but with increasing signs of "fear" in the markets over the short and intermediate term.  So the way I have it flagged, it is saying that the fear over the last 5 days is higher than the fear over the last 3 months on average.  AND the average fear for the last 3 months has turned higher.

After reviewing previous instances in detail, it seems that SPY has high risk of declining to at least 254.00, but very possibly closer to 248.00 or beyond within the next 3 weeks.

Pete