Multiple Comparison Pointing to Thursday as Probable Short Term Bottom

I have scanned past history of SPY in comparison to today's closing action and have further confirmation that on average we may expect a volatile couple days, but probably a rally attempt and short term bottom likely to form within the next week.

The most common thread here seems to be an elevated downside skew for the next couple days before stabilizing.

Based on what I am seeing I would estimate the odds of a further 2% decline or more over the next 3 trading sessions to be greater than 66%, with some possibility of a "wipeout" type move.  I would estimate the odds of a wipeout move to be ~25% or a bit greater over the next 3 days.  That would be something on the order of 5% or more loss at least intraday.

Again price in SPY has come back down close to the 200 day moving average.  And the failure of price to clearly stay above it after yesterday may indicate that yesterday's rally was just a program trading buying surge at the 200 day average but without broad follow through.  So it could be just a "blip" from that average in the midst of an incomplete selling cycle.  It seems very possible that a sharp move down to wipe out stops and trigger sell orders could occur over the next couple days.

That would be the classic market behavior, often accompanied with a break of a prior significant low.  In this case, this significant low is the February low which is about 3% below today's closing price in SPY.

The next significant low below that would be the August 2017 low down around 242 on SPY which is about 7% lower than current closing price.

I would estimate somewhere in that range to be a probable low over the next 2-3 sessions, with some minor possibility of something even greater to the downside occurring.

I currently am holding some put options on QQQ since 3-14 of which I exited half at today's close because of the bullish divergence on the hourly chart.  I plan to exit the other half by the end of this week, but quite a bit of action could occur by then, so I will key in on the 60 minute and 15 minute chart for ques for exit, and run some back tests as I see what gaps and price moves are occuring.


Pete