Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Several Conditions Suggesting A Probable Rebound Coming In Stocks Over 1-2 Weeks or More

I spent considerable time testing current market conditions against past data, and while it does not appear to be a screaming bottom, there are several factors which I rate to be significant that produce some very strong short skew results to the upside.

Some of the condition combinations below produced significant upside skews over the coming 1-2 weeks.

VIX up 20%+
Equity P/C ratio 21/84 avg. >= 1.05

VIX up 20%+
VIX/VXV >= 0.95
VIX/VXV 10 avg. >0.95

Total P/C 5avg. < -1 st. dev
SPY down >= -1%

Based on the large increase in the VIX yesterday as well as an extended period of VIX/VXV elevation one of the more highly probable plays here would be writing an OTM bull put credit spread with 1 to 2 weeks until expiration.

I am looking at spreads that are ATM or about 1% OTM.


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