New Intermediate Term Trade

The daily chart of the major indexes have turned down and made bearish MACD crosses. Based on some other cyclical and seasonal factors, I believe there is probably an even better than average chance that this will materialize into a larger decline.


New Blog Trade:

Buy QID (Nasdaq 2x inverse ETF) at the open on Monday. Place a GTC sell stop at 16.00 after entry.

SPXU Trade Exit

I am posting an exit on the open SPXU trade. The blog exit is 32.55 up from 29.70 at entry.

There was no downside follow through after this morning's gap down, and things are oversold short-term. I may post another trade based on the daily technicals, but it looks now, like this morning was a short-term exhaustion point.

SPXU Stop Order

Because the market is now short-term oversold, but with potential for further downside, I am going to just post a stop order a little better than break-even and then see how things pan out the next few days.

SPXU Trade Follow-Up:

Place a GTC sell stop at 30.00.


I am not going to post a stop order on EUO yet, though I don't blame anyone for getting one in just below the most recent swing low.

Quick Update

On a very short-term basis the market is oversold according to the intraday models. So that could justify an exit here with a nice gain on SPXU. But since it looks like a pattern may be complete here, I want to at least wait for divergence on the hourly technicals like MACD before taking this one off the table.

I will probably post a stop on SPXU tonight to follow-up on this one.

New EUO Trade

I am posting a new trade on EUO which is a 2x bullish US Dollar ETF. Based on the Fibonacci retracements and candlestick pattern, broken downtrend line, bullish divergence on technicals, I believe we may see a nice move up from here.

New Trade:

Buy EUO today with a market order. Blog entry is 21.65

Expanding Triangle Completing?

Click on Chart to Enlarge

As the current move up has gotten bigger, that opens up the possibility that an expanding triangle pattern is forming in the S&P 500 and Dow. With the loss of momentum on the hourly chart such that there may be a significant correction, I am open to the possibility of a pattern completing here.

It would be nice to see a candlestick reversal pattern soon if this is the case. I would like to see the 1131ish highs on the S&P exceeded and then closed below, just to clear the air a bit. So a bearish engulfing or shooting star tomorrow may do the job.

Bearish Divergence on SPY

Click on Chart to Enlarge

Both the last two pushes to new rally highs have not pushed the MACD to higher highs on the hourly chart in SPY. This sets up what could be a powerful bearish divergence. I believe it will most likely lead to a sharp pull back in the days ahead. There are actually several other reasons I believe suggest that we will see a pullback.

There is the monthly jobs report tomorrow. That could lead to some type of exhaustion gap up, or a major downer. So I'm going to post a trade here, because in either case, I think we are topping here for at least a multi day decline.


New Trade:

Buy SPXU today with a market order. Current price is 29.70 and is the blog entry price.