Here is a look at Bitcoin reward to risk assessment for the coming year.
https://www.loom.com/share/749cc58cec2a42bcb4e291b081452fcc
Based on assessment of past similar market cycles, it appears that most of the price risk of Bitcoin would be in the next 2 weeks.
There is a very high 1 year reward to risk based on past cycles.
Of course Bitcoin has been an outstanding performing asset in its price history, so it would be expected to show strong results.
But by many metrics it could be argued that this bear market is mature, with only a minority of past instances experiencing greater than 20% declines in the next year. Most of those instances were in earlier years when Bitcoin had a smaller market cap, and so it would be even less likely to expect similar magnitude moves currently.
Pete
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