3-9-20 Stock Market Update and Expectation

The snips here show the results of a scan on past instances in SPY when it was down more than 6% in a day.

SPY only goes back to the mid 1990's, so it is short sighted in terms of history, BUT the data does include a couple of the largest bear markets in history, so it could give us some useful guides.

The implication is that there is about a 2.6:1 greater upside potential over the next 3 days compared to downside.  This is quite strong.  Note that basically all past instances increased 5% or more at some point over the next 3 days.

The lower table shows that all instances made a positive close above the signal day (today) over the next 5 days at some point.  But all of them also showed 2 higher closes over the next 5 days.

And that strategy has given the higher return compared to exiting on the first positive close.

Also note that all prior instances declined at least a little, tiny bit further over the next few days.  In fact looking at the next day's data only (not shown here), all of them made at least a slight loss during the next session.

So the point here is that this is an exceptionally volatile market, but is presenting an exceptionally high reward over the very short term.  If not in the market, a simple strategy would be to enter tomorrow at a limit of today's close.  

Then exit at the first positive close or second positive close OR after 5 days if not profitable.

Average future return peaked at a 5 day hold on this set up.

That also fit with short term cycles which suggest a 3-4 day short term advance is due.  But after than, there may be further downside or retest of the lows.

Continued Extremes Suggest Imminent Sharp (Short Term) Rebound In Stocks - 2/28/20

Some key data points from today are:

• 4 closes in a row below the lower bollinger band on SPY
• 4 closes in a row above the upper bollinger band on VIX
• 2 period cumulative WRSI2 less than 1 

The past history of SPY demonstrates extremely strong (~100%) past history of a high close than the trigger day within the next 5 days.

There was very strong tendency for the next day to close higher.

Also, today was 2 days in a row with gap downs more than 1%.  This also has led to strong rebounds.

• I looked at what happened in past times where the 1st gap down was NOT filled.  And even though prices went dramatically lower the second day, past similar instances suggest around a 50% probability of the 1st gap being filled within the next 5 days.
• That would put price back up at 311 on SPY.

From the most extreme similar instances, the MAX gains over the next 5 days were mostly clustered between 2.25 and 3.5 ATR's (10 period).

• This would suggest that the maximum gain over the next 5 days could be a very sharp rise to between 310-320 on SPY.
• The large gap down from Thursday is currently only 2 ATR's above Friday's closing price, so it seems that that gap fill would be a good target for this rise.
• Assuming we saw a rise and a close above the gap level at ~311, I think that would be an ideal exit time if it occurs.

Pete

Short Term Rebound Is Highly Probable 2-26-20

I have looked at a bunch of different criteria comparing recent action to past history of SPY.

Some key factors that have historically made for short term rebounds include:

• 2 closes in a row below bollinger bands
• Back to back 3% down days
• Gap down of 2% followed by further downside
• several others....

One very simple scan that triggered today is a 2 day cumulative Wilder's RSI2 reading below 2.

• The history of SPY had this set-up 27 times (regardless of bull/bear market), all 27 showed a positive close within the next 5 days.  The average gain was large also, as would be expected given the volatility.

I expect a continued volatile market but with a high probability of a short term rebound over the next couple days.

Currently the short term cycle analysis I follow is suggestive that there will be continued higher volatility with probable lower lows over the coming 1-3 weeks.

SPY Downside Volatility Breakout - Projections for Potential Decline Into Early January 2020

Click on Chart to Enlarge

Yesterday SPY closed below a trailing 3 ATR volatility stop.  I looked back over the last few years at the decline from high to low the other times the volatility stop was broken.

I excluded a few in the middle of 2017.  That market environment was exceptional/historic momentum.  A few breaks that year were smaller than the average on this chart, but for our purposes I am just showing a range of expectation.

So from the precedents here, it seems likely that price would retest the recent highs from September, and possible decline well below that before the correction is over.

As long as price stays below the recent highs, I would anticipate possibility for a sharper sell off into the new year.

High Probability Set Up In Stocks - Short Term Rebound Expected 10/3/19

SPY has closed below its lower bollinger band for 3 days straight.  That itself produces a robust signal with high probability of short term skew to the upside in stocks in coming days.

Factoring an uptrending market into it improves the signal.

Also as of today we are seeing some extreme readings in the put call ratios.  I have looked at these readings coupled with a variety of other combinations of data from today's session, and there consistently is a high probability of a higher close in coming days.

There is approximately 90% probability of a high close than today's close within the next 5 days.  Including any losers, the average trade return is quite good - depending on the scan combination, around 1% expected value or higher.

Most of the scan combinations I looked at had higher expected values by holding for either 2 consecutive higher closes OR two higher closes within the next 5 days.  This strategy dropped the win percentage down to the 80%+ range but produced a higher expected value on most criteria combinations.

In summary, I expected some chop and volatility into next week, possibly with lower closes yet to come, but the odds appear to be high for a higher close above Thursday's close within the next week.

Cotton Showing Extreme Trader Positioning - Suggests Major Rally Is Imminent

While I do not trade futures, I follow many commodity ETFs and am most comfortable and profitable with trading those markets, in addition to stock indexes. 

Currently, cotton is in an extreme positioning where the producers (red line on bottom panel) are actually net LONG.  These are the farmers, etc who produce cotton and who typically are using the futures as a hedge against their physical product. 

So they are almost always net short.  For the data breakdown going back to the mid 2000's, there is not another time that producers have been net long.  So given that price is hovering right near a 10 year low and the producers are indicating they don't need to hedge, I think this market is on the brink of a bear market low, or at least a major rally.

Speculative short interest is at an all time high, so there is plenty of "fuel" to feed a major vertical type rally if/when it gets going.  Short covering can lead to quite large and rapid upward spikes off major lows.

The last major rally in this bear market was about 10% in 2 months.  But a short covering rally off a low like this could be more like 20-30% in 2 months or less.

Click on Chart to Enlarge

Silver and Bonds Look to Have Completed "Blow-Off" Tops

Both silver and bonds have recently spiked into a common type of blow-off top pattern, some off which I have highlighted on this blog in recent years.

Sentiment and large trader positioning is ripe for a trend reversal or stall.

If you are one to get caught up late in a trend when it is obvious, my suggestion is that this trend has run its course.  And now is time to exit on an intermediate term basis, certainly NOT to get sucked into what WAS a strong trend.

Pete