Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Harry Dent/ Demographics

I have a link to Harry Dent's website on the right hand side of the screen. I did not mention Harry's perspective in the last post, though it is the most fundamental and understandable type of forecast. His work is based off of demographics.

When you boil a market or economy down, a market that is producing, earning, and spending is a healthy one. All of those factors can be quantified demographically by looking at how many people in a population are of a certain age and where that age is in relation to the peaks and valleys of productivity, spending, etc.

We are fast approaching a time when the world's largest generation is going to move past its peak spending point, then not too long after, drop dramatically in productivity as the baby boomers mass retire. It is hard to imagine this being a good scenario for markets and the past research of Harry Dent will bear that out.

There are a number of free resources that you can view on the site. I would urge anyone reading this blog to become familiar with the basics of this research and look into how to protect assets in a deflationary period. It may sound like Doomsday talk, but realize that Doomsday has came and went for generations past, and there are reasonable fundamental causes and ways to forecast those time periods for the future.


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