If you follow investing or trading for any length of time, you come across various analysis systems and gurus who have their time in the sun. I don't suggest following any one guru but there are a few voices that have my respect, and I thought I'd briefly pass some perspective along.
Glenn Neely form Neowave.com believes that we have entered a new bear market that will likely be severe and lengthy (4-6 years). His analysis is a logic based Elliot wave theory.
James Flanagan of GannGlobal.com shows that the average first leg down in a bear market is about 20-21% and takes about 4-5 months. That is very similar to our current situation. Also, the average first bear market rally is about 50% retracement of the first leg down. Also, right on que. They view our current market as a relatively early stage bear market.
Jason Geopfert of SentimenTrader.com shows similar stats as James Flanagan and seems to be favoring a bear market view until proven otherwise.
Bernie Schaeffer of Shaeffersresearch.com offers a more bullish view based off some recent comments. Bernie knows his stuff so I always find his comments useful when he posts them on his site.
On a shorter term note, I have posted a link to TickerSense blog which polls prominent bloggers on short term market perspective. I haven't followed this enough to know how accurate the blog community is, but it definitely can be used in a contrary sense. Looking at their history of the poll, shows that the blogging community falls prey to the same sentiment extremes as other surveys have shown.
http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/
Pete
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Hi Peter,
ReplyDeleteI just discovered your blog today and enjoyed scrolling back to look at some of your takes.
At the very least, it looks like you and I have some similar ways of thinking about investing and the markets.
Finally, thanks for including me in your blogroll, among some excellent company.
Cheers and good blogging/trading,
-Bill