Monday, June 16, 2008

Market Perspective

If you follow investing or trading for any length of time, you come across various analysis systems and gurus who have their time in the sun. I don't suggest following any one guru but there are a few voices that have my respect, and I thought I'd briefly pass some perspective along.

Glenn Neely form Neowave.com believes that we have entered a new bear market that will likely be severe and lengthy (4-6 years). His analysis is a logic based Elliot wave theory.

James Flanagan of GannGlobal.com shows that the average first leg down in a bear market is about 20-21% and takes about 4-5 months. That is very similar to our current situation. Also, the average first bear market rally is about 50% retracement of the first leg down. Also, right on que. They view our current market as a relatively early stage bear market.

Jason Geopfert of SentimenTrader.com shows similar stats as James Flanagan and seems to be favoring a bear market view until proven otherwise.

Bernie Schaeffer of Shaeffersresearch.com offers a more bullish view based off some recent comments. Bernie knows his stuff so I always find his comments useful when he posts them on his site.

On a shorter term note, I have posted a link to TickerSense blog which polls prominent bloggers on short term market perspective. I haven't followed this enough to know how accurate the blog community is, but it definitely can be used in a contrary sense. Looking at their history of the poll, shows that the blogging community falls prey to the same sentiment extremes as other surveys have shown.

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/

Pete

1 comment:

  1. Hi Peter,

    I just discovered your blog today and enjoyed scrolling back to look at some of your takes.

    At the very least, it looks like you and I have some similar ways of thinking about investing and the markets.

    Finally, thanks for including me in your blogroll, among some excellent company.

    Cheers and good blogging/trading,

    -Bill

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