Click Chart to Enlarge 
Click Chart to Enlarge
Today the short-term model became overbought. It is tempting to suggest an inverse ETF at this juncture, but there are a couple reasons that am not going to.
1) There has been a recent follow-through day indicating uptrending market until proven otherwise
2) Breakout of tight trading range to close above Bollinger Bands
3) Bullish cross on Aroon indicator indicating trend shifting to up
As side notes, I believe that FRO is offering another entry opportunity today after a low volume advance. That would be good for 60 or 55 put options.
Also, I have a couple different strike priced put options on GLD that expire in August. Both are up about 100% or a little less. I have limit orders to sell if price gets to 84.00 on GLD.
Despite the herd mentality to once again look at the pullback in commodities as a buying opportunity around the 200 day MA, I think it is more likely to fail. In my eyes there has been a clear shift in the severity and pattern of price action.
Pete
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