Monday, August 25, 2008

SSO Exit and Market Update

SSO opened at 61.60 today and that is what I will use as the exit price for this trade. The entry price was 61.66, so this is essentially a breakeven trade. The short-term model never made it to overbought, but everything I have been looking at had suggested that the market would move lower soon (as it has today), so I wanted to err on the side of caution this time.

If the market ends down today in higher volume, as it appears it will, that would be 5 distribution days since the recent follow through in July. Five higher volume selling days in the space of 4 weeks is what Investor's Business Daily suggests is almost always enough to send a market into a deeper correction. So, the volume pattern is another reason to be careful in the market now.

Pete

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