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This chart is a 15 min chart of SPY showing the 3 significant pullbacks so far since this uptrend started. They have all been in the $2.00 range. The pullback this morning was on low volume and looks kind of rounded on shorter term chart (5 min), so it looks like a "healthy" accumulation type base in a still active uptrend.

The last hour is very important in that during strong uptrends, you typically want to see the "smart money" buying at the end of the day. It is about 3:00 ET right now, so I don't know how the last hour will go, but I am not seeing anything that suggests weakness yet, so I am not going to recommend an exit yet for blog purposes for the QLD trade.

The short-term model is actually still holding in the overbought area, which is typically a sign of strength. In other words, if the trend was over, things would turn down very soon after hitting extreme levels. Maybe it will in the last hour, but I would not count on it. Another thing I look for during very stong moves is any new high in price that creates an indicator divergence with the short-term model. That has not happened yet, so again I think that is suggestive of some more room to move up into next week.

Pete