The Big Squeeze

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It's late and I don't have a lot to say. I made this chart yesterday but didn't post it. That is how I see it. I am willing to start betting against this rally on any legitmate candlestick reversal pattern. Given the notes above, I have serious doubts about any bullish activity above 1050 on the S&P cash. I haven't got around yet to doing a video or major chart blitz review of current data, partially because if this week is an uptrending week, I think the data will be that much more telling this weekend.

In short, dumb money confidence is back at the highest levels of "the bear market" and smart money confidence is back near the lowest levels. From a long term wave theory perspective, the next move down is likely to be either horrible or really really horrible, both in the markets and in a broad economic sense. Other than the primary goal of this blog which is the nuts and bolts of making money very consistently with short-term trading, the second focus I have had is on making sure that nobody reading this gets their life's savings wiped out in this mess - or at least that I did my best to make sure that didn't happen. It takes courage to go against the crowd. It takes courage to click "sell" again when the market goes up another 5% the next week. But with each day the market move higher here, my opinion is that we are getting one step closer to "the day when the buying stops."

There are two ways to make money: #1 is to make money, #2 is to not lose money.

I just hope that everyone is not so focused on #1 that you don't do some serious planning on #2.


Pete