If your entry on SPXU was 53.50 or lower, then please feel free to put in a GTC sell stop at your breakeven price now. If your entry was higher than that, I personally would not be comfortable with a breakeven stop right now.
I am not going to change the blog stop yet, because so far the trade looks good, and I want to allow the trade as much room as possible to work out, particularly since there is some chance that this week could be a MAJOR market high, with a very high reward vs risk potential for this trade. Then if the market breaks the first minor support at this week's lows, I will definitely move a stop to breakeven or better.
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suggestion: you should have a link to a log of all your past trades
ReplyDeleteYou can check the best posts section for the trade reviews which has that. I have typically posted them on the side bar as well. In the past I have done some quarterly reviews and posted updated spreadsheets of all trades to date. I didn't do that in June, so should probably do one either this month or Sept.
ReplyDeleteI take it that you are a relatively new reader because it has only been about a week since I took the last 2 months of closed trades down off the side bar.
To date I have made no effort of any kind to publicize this blog, and it was really started for a small group of people whom I personally know. So as long as I post trades here etc, please feel free to use the blog or participate in trades, but do so at your own discretion.
Assuming you are new to the blog, most of the short-term trades I post are based off a mean reversion type model and I don't usually recommend a stop loss. It is fine to use one, but I have typically suggested managing risk by position sizing (putting a fixed $ amount to every trade or devoting a certain % of account to each trade). For trend reversal trades I do suggest stop losses.
Hope the blog helps your trading and understanding of the markets!
I am sorry if I barged into a private blog. Thanks for some great information here. I am a relatively new short term trader. I used to believe in buy and hold (hope?) before but it looks like I will not be around when the stock prices actually reflect the real value of the companies. I have been burned by stop losses but it also saved me a good deal of money on others. I looked at your SDS trade and a stop would have really helped get out before having to having to watch the value fall like that. Are you waiting on a reversal to liquidate that? Hope to learn more from you.
ReplyDeleteIn short, yes I am waiting. In general the majority of my analysis time is spent on defining intermediate trend and anticipating points were it may turn.
ReplyDeleteSo for trading puposes I try to always go with that trend until a turn is close at hand, and I also "err" by trading more in the direction of the even longer term trend. So in this case my personal perspective which can be found in prior posts over several months is that the 1044 S&P level would likely be a blowoff point at which all post crash shorts were being squeezed. Since the market basically achieved that level, I am trying to be patient to allow for a modest pullback and then begin placing and trailing stops in hopes of catching a major reversal.
This is what I am personally doing. I know it seems like the market falling back to 900 and lower seems like forever away, but what the Chinese market did the last month is what I believe will be the most likely outcome of our market. Likely the move since July 8 will be completely wiped out, and probably in less time that it took to form.
Pete