Thursday, November 5, 2009

High OEX Reading Today

Click on Chart to Enlarge

I had considered recommending a new SPXU trade today, but for a few reasons I didn't. For one thing, I don't see an obvious stop point that is close to current prices. So I would rather see weakness re-emerge and then use the peak of the recent advance as the stop. Also, the candlestick today didn't show any stalling or weakness, closing right at the highs.

On the other hand volume was low which may be a sign that the big money was not convinced that this will last and did not participate. On that note, the OEX put/call ratio looks to be quite high today, which shows the smart traders are taking the precaution of hedging/betting on downside risk from this level. I don't have the exact figure for today, but it looks to be one of the higher readings we've seen recently.

Technically the move up the last few days appears as a rising wedge on the 15 min chart. That is typically a bearish continuation pattern. So until price actually breaks out one way or the other, it is just something of note, but not really actionable. Besides the top of the wedge, there are also the base trendline from the highs as well as horizontal resistance from the 10/29 highs that are potential resistance at this level.

Basically I will be looking to enter a new bearish trade at any time from here, but need to see some better signs of reversal or at least stalling/divergence first.

5 comments:

  1. OEX came in at 2.06 on Thursday. Typically these spiked are right near short term tops, but I suppose it could be more due to the unemployment numbers coming out Friday. Protecting in case of a big move down on that report.

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  2. clam before the storm? kind of weird today.

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  3. haha... "calm" before the storm...

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  4. yeah it seemed a little lazy today for a bad miss on monthly jobs report.

    its right in that range I'd expect this rally to fizzle. I just need to see some action that allows a good stop placement to get back in. I suppose one option is to just take a small position and use the Oct high as stop and then add to it and move the stop down if market starts to confirm the outlook.

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  5. right. i did take a 25% shot at sds today at near 1070. we'll see what happens to it on monday.

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