Friday, January 22, 2010

Corn, Soybeans, Wheat



Click on Charts to Enlarge

The charts above (from top down) are corn, soybeans, and wheat. The GRU trade that is active right now is weighted 47% wheat, 36% corn, and 18% soybeans. What I am showing in the charts are explosive moves off of major lows, that have now come back down to the breakout area and are flushing out stops. Any reversal back above the red dashed lines would be strong evidence of a false breakdown, and indeed it was just a stop cleaner upper.

Also the markets above are basically range bound and are showing oversold oscillators, and some with modest bullish divergence. So the safest trade would be to put the stop below the major low area from Oct/Nov, but the really high reward to risk ratio will come from picking a reversal candlestick and then placing the stop right under it and then hopefully catching a nice move up.

These markets may actually be in a good long term buying position due to seasonal and long term cycles, so I will consider that in the management of this trade.

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