Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Hourly Chart Update

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The hourly chart on SPY is showing a strong bullish divergence on the new lows the last few days. In addition to the break of the support level noted earlier today, I would expect to see a rally attempt very soon from here. That is the main rationale for the UPRO trade. There are other factors like "turn around Tuesday" which would seem to suggest some short-term strength ahead. See Quantifiable Edges blog for a post on that today.

As for the Hindenburg Omen, I view that as an intermediate term negative sign. It has historically predicted market weakness in the weeks/months ahead. But the bullish set-up and clear profit taking levels (gaps and retracements) are so obvious, that I don't want to let that longer term negative take away a nice trade.

That being said, I will likely look to get bearish again on any rally that pushes to short-term overbought levels.

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