VIX at 78.6% Retracement

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Back in late 2008 I made this post showing the tendency for VIX spikes to be retraced around 78.6% before spiking again and the market declining. The chart above shows the VIX at a similar retracement right now.

Also there were 17 lower lows in the VIX since the May high. And in the last move down in the VIX (market rally from July 1 to now) there were 11 lower lows. Anything in the 12-15 range can be a good sign of a market reversal. So maybe this is a hint that we will see more market downside soon.

It would not surprise me to see some more upside to test the 1130 S&P level, but my intermediate bias is shifting to down now.