Sunday, May 15, 2011

A Few Significant Divergences in Sentiment and Breadth


Click on Charts to Enlarge

The top chart shows that the equity put/call ratio has not been falling as stocks have made new highs. Looking back at prior instances, this often happens in a drawn out fashion at market turns

The lower chart shows the % of NYSE stocks above the 200 day MA. Notice that this hasn't reached new peaks relative to the February highs again showing some amount of divergence and waning breadth in the market.

The story looks similar in some other sentiment measures as well. And the smart money has been progressively getting more bearish in options trading. The OEX put/call open interest ratio is now at an extreme level last seen a few months before the 2007 bull market high.

Not that any of this means the market has to top right here. But there are signs that the current bull market is long in the tooth.

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