Sunday, October 2, 2011

2010 and 2011 Trade Data

Click on Charts to Enlarge

I haven't posted updated trade history on the blog in a while. So here are all the trades which were closed in 2010 in the top chart and all the 2011 closed trades and the still open trades as well. The profit numbers are simply calculated with no commissions added and assuming a flat $10,000 allocated to each trade every time.

The open TZA and UNG trade are obviously sore spots. However, sentiment on UNG has never returned from the extreme pessimism level at entry to extreme optimism for exit. So until that happens I will continue to hold this trade in the blog.

Given the longer term outlook on the markets right now, I expect TZA will increase substantially in value prior to exiting the trade. The markets are at a place right now where a breakdown below the August lows could happen in the next 1-2 weeks, possibly resulting in another substantial leg down in stocks, and as soon as I can safely do so, I will post stops on all the open trades.

I expect the best trades to be short sales in the current environment, but I will continue posting inverse ETF trades when possible for those who don't sell short.

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