Monday, August 19, 2013

Watching This Volatile Set-Up In Stocks

I have been vacationing for the past week or so and will provide an update soon.

In brief this correction that has begun in stocks looks to be legit and not be done yet.  Short term it is arguably oversold, but any brief rally should be looked at as a shorting opportunity on a trading basis.

There have been 3 consecutive closes outside the lower daily bollinger band on SPY with band expansion which is a volatile set up that will typically lead to one of two outcomes...

1) A bottom will form quickly creating a multi day rebound (or longer) attempt
2) The price losses become increasingly larger with corresponding volatility expansion.

The longest streaks of closes outside the daily bands in recent years is 7.  So we could see a rebound soon, but if we don't understand the possibility of a waterfall type decline from these levels down to the 155 level or lower on SPY.

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