Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Get Out of The Market I Think

I hope to have time for a video on Thursday to review some data and charts.  But currently the volatility and put/call ratio bearish divergences are very sharp and are concurrent with multiple time frame bearish technical analysis (weekly, daily, and hourly bearish divergence on the MACD).

Additionally, it seems odd but today is a new all time high in the S&P 500 and the McClellan Oscillator is actually negative on the day.  And it has not mustard any strong readings in a couple months.  Certainly the argument can be made that breadth is not healthy for a sustained advance here.

Based on multiple factors, I really don't expect new market highs to be made beyond the second week of August.  And I think this week or next could be a very significant high.

I think for speculating on index shorts, I would suggest watching each day for top reversal daily price action with potential entry on any classic reversal candlestick pattern.  Also if watching the weekly time frame, I would again keep watching for top reversal weekly price action and the possibility of a modest to strong close this week followed by a gap up and then sell off next week.

As always, use some objective indicator to signal or price pattern to take entry and have contingency plans for exits if prices go against your trade as well as if they go with your trade.



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