Tuesday, July 8, 2014

More Selling Likely Ahead?

As of this afternoon 2:00 ET, it appear likely that stocks will have at least a modest continuation to lower lows over the next few days.

While the VIX has popped up here, it is not at a statistical level that typically coincides with short term bottoms yet.

When I have time to update I would like to go over some other charts which I believe suggest caution here for those who are still long.  Put/call ratios are at an interesting point here, where they are possibly indicating relative fear in the market compared to the recent trend.  However, given we were only 1 day off an all time high yesterday, I think a better interpretation is that this is a "shot across the bow" after a significant divergence period, which suggests we could see fear rise further, and stocks to fall further.  I suggest waiting for at least short term sentiment divergences to consider taking any new longs from this point.  Extremes can get more extreme.  So we want to see extremes first, then divergence, then price reversal confirming a possible change in trend.  That will be the low risk point to possibly enter for a continuation of a bull market trend.

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