Sunday, September 28, 2014

US Stocks Have Possibly Topped for This Bull Market - At Least Expect Further Decline From These Levels

This post is just a brief update that my opinion is still that stocks are topping or have topped last week.  The recent multiple time frame divergence  was near picture perfect for a top, similar to the bond market top in 2012.

Price logic on the short term immediately off the top, showed a complete retracement of the the last little thrust up in less time than it took to from suggesting a counter trend move is developing with the possibility of a significant high having occurred.

On an intermediate term basis, the Russell 2000 has completely retraced its entire August-September rally in less time than it took to form, suggesting intermediate to long-term strength is down in that market.

The VIX/VXV ratio has not spiked above 1.0 yet on this decline, and that imbalance has market all of the recent significant lows over the last year plus, so I don't view a bottom as being in place on Friday's rally attempt.

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