Thursday, October 2, 2014

Downside Projection Based on IWM (Russell 2000) Chart Pattern

IWM Double Top
Click on Image to Enlarge

This chart is a daily chart of the IWM etf which tracks the Russell 2000 small cap index.  Of note here is a picture perfect double top so far where there was a false breakout and immediate selling.  Now prices are at support where I have highlighted with green arrow a price level that has formed a very tight support level at about 108.00 on IWM.  These are logical stop points based on price history on the chart.  That being the case, there are two things that we can be quite sure of in my opinion.

  1. Prices will break below those levels in order to run the stops 
  2. Given the magnitude of the pattern, there are likely enough stops and new short orders to create a follow through in price below the support level
How far will it follow through?  Obviously only time will tell.  But based on a typical double top chart projection, I have placed a projection line down from the support level showing a price projection to 95.50 if the double top completes and meets the equal projection from top to neck line, down from the neck line.

My personal bottom reversal algorithm registered a new extreme in downside panic yesterday.  So at this point, we need to see a divergence in real money sentiment to develop concurrent with a price reversal bar in order to consider any long side trade from this point.  

So to be clear here, there is currently a long side set-up on par with other high quality set-ups that have occurred in this bull market.  So on that basis keep alert for long opportunities.  However, given the multiple time frame large scale bearish divergences just completed, the double top in the Russell 2000, and other large scale optimistic extremes registered recently in the bull market, I expect that this correction could unfold differently and more ferociously to the downside.  And bottom reversal signal that does occur certainly needs to be protected with a stop.  I will update when those signals occur.

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