Tuesday, February 3, 2015

OAS Short Covering Underway......And Likely to See Further Gains?

In a recent post on OAS I talked at some length about the recent accumulation of a large amount of short interest in the stock and gave an estimate of the average price at which that new short interest may have been accumulated.  I estimated that the 15.00 level or 34 day simple moving average may be a short squeeze trigger price.  This is the theoretical point at which the short interest becomes a net loss.  Any further gains from there really create a forced buying to cover situation on the short position and can lead to significant price advances, often times in explosive fashion.

So here is an update on the current chart of OAS.

Click on Chart to Enlarge

Notice that as price moved to the blue 34 day moving average yesterday we saw a large price move occur, creating a 15% gain or so yesterday.  Then today we saw another 15% move or so.  So part of the equation is that oil has rallied as I have recently suggested would be the case.  But why has the range expanded so much in the last couple days, and why is it outpacing oil gains so much?  Well I think that the short interest has a lot to do with that.

Currently price is now right at the 12/23/14 high which from a charting basis is a likely buy stop point for shorts.  So it may be hard to gauge how rapidly the short interest is being covered, but I think it is logical to assume that there will be more short covering as price breaks through that 17.75 high.

The stock traded huge volume today, way higher than any day in the last 2 years.  I think that also adds evidence of frantic short covering.  How long will it last?  I don't know.  There were 16.9 million shares sold short as of the new year.  The total volume traded the last two days is 37 million shares.  So a significant amount of the potential covering may be done, but I think between new potential buying interest as oil turns up and OAS breaks through chart resistance, and some further short covering potential, this stock may have a good ways to go before it makes a significant high and pause in the buying pressure.

I currently have an order to sell the current option I have on it as the stock price approaches $25.  The option I have is February expiration, $15 strike.  So I am hoping for some more rapid follow through here and a fill of the gap down from Nov 28th prior to Feb 20th expiration.

I may not update further on this one unless someone has a position in it.  But I thought the educational value of the underlying dynamics was of value to follow on an intra trade basis here.


No comments:

Post a Comment