Thursday, March 26, 2015

Price Logic Confirms Probable New Downward Pattern Off The Recent Highs In Stocks

Click on Chart of QQQ to Enlarge

The hourly chart of QQQ above shows that the current decline off of the 3/20/15 high is occurring rapidly and has retraced the recent rally up from 3/13 in less time than the rally took to form.  That is reasonable price logic confirmation that a larger phase of market action is ending and a new (at least short term) downward pattern has begun.  If a major top is not in place, then the pattern may not result in much further downside.  But given some of the things I've shown here over the last several weeks, the overall context seems ripe for a market high.

I would not advise an exit of short positions here until some bullish divergence develops.  And even then, a partial exit may be wise with prospects of greater gains.

Given the price is now at a 1 month low, my bottom spotting algorithm with begin to flag certain 1 day reversal patterns as potential bottoms.  Those would be my preferred exit signals here - waiting for at least the shortest term signal, a "1 month low" to get picked up by my system.

Also given the data point registered on Monday, please review the stats in my December post highlighting the put/call ratio sell warning.  


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