- daily 14,3 stochastics crosses down from above 50
- weekly MACD is down
- daily MACD is down
The results showed 20 instances going back to Sept 1995. The MAX loss was 4 times as large as the MAX gain over the next 2 weeks. This signal is occurring today.
When I added the conditions of the daily MACD line being below 0, the results were also very bearish. And when I added the additional condition of today being a cross down on the daily MACD (from below 0 still) there were only 4 instances going back the 21 years.
Dates were
8/27/1998 - ~9.5% loss within 3 days
10/4/2005 - ~2.5% loss within 3 days
8/19/2015 - ~12.5% loss within 3 days
9/26/16 - sideways trade for 2 weeks
So check these on your chart. The most recent one 2 weeks ago led to nothing of significance. Just a historically unusual sideways pattern.
But the other 3 had massive skews to the bearish side. About 10:1 skew to the downside over the next 2 weeks.
I know it is small sample size. But may be of note.
Some other studies looking at volume increases and price declines similar to today show a mild to moderated bullish picture for 1-2 weeks on average.
So it seems like the most probable scenario is a modest rebound over the next 1-2 weeks back up into the range we've been in. But there may be a greater than typical risk for a quick sell off of large scale.
I will keep this under watch and post if there is relevant info to follow.
Pete
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