Friday, October 14, 2016

No Clear Directional Bias Currently Based on My Backtests in SPY

Yesterday and today I have looked a several scans investigating MACD position, stochastics, bollinger bands, 3 month low reversal attempts, real money sentiment measures, and the balance I would have to say is mildly bearish looking forward a couple months from yesterday's close in terms of MAX losses versus MAX gains.

Basically it seems the the intermediate term of the next couple weeks or possibly longer has some downside currents.  So real short term or swing style trading may be best on selling rallies.

It would be nice to see more of a hard sell off in order to set up a bullish rebound attempt.  The best trades I ever see in my scans are bullish set ups after hard sell offs.  Even in down trends there are often sharp rebounds for a few days, and the weekly options offer attractive opportunities, and the upside skew can be very nice for ETF plays with wide stops and limits.


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