Low VIX Readings - Probable Short Term Weakness

I ran a simple scan over the weekend looking at time when price on SPY made a new 52 week high, and also the VIX closed at or below -1.9 standard deviations from its 20 day average.

That was the simple set-up which occurred Friday.

The stats show about 2. to 1 greater MAX loss than MAX gain over the next 3 and 5 days.  The skew is still notably negative at 1.75:1 at the 1 month mark forward from the signal.

Also I looked at some option today, and noted that the 259 strike put on SPY which expires this Wednesday Nov 8, was trading at a level that only required a 0.39% decline, by close on Wednesday to take the option to a 100% or greater gain.

So I looked at the 27 instances that I filtered from the above scan, and found that 22 out of 27 instances declined at least 0.39% within the next 3 days.  So there is about an 81% chance of a double or more in the option value by this measure, and seems to be a reasonable speculative play.