I will do further analysis after closing figures are complete for today, but based on this afternoon's current data that I am estimating from, it appears that the current move in SPY is likely to be very near an intermediate peak in prices.
Based on a few simple back-test studies on put/call ratios and VIX readings, the backtests suggest about a 2 or 3 times greater downside risk over the next 2 months compared to upside potential.
Now these scans are by their nature not inclusive of all market conditions, and every market environment is unique, but from past experience with observing markets and running back tests for comparable conditions, I feel that the market has limited upside potential from here for several weeks or months.
I will provide further stats tomorrow or possibly this evening.
Pete
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