I have scanned current market conditions and possible outcomes for today's close in context of the recent price action, and on average there is a clear short term pattern indicating a rebound rally would be consistent with past similar scenarios.
The closing price gain peaks are 4, 5, and 8 days forward from the low of the sell off, when it ends.
So we could expect the current sell off to begin to rebound from a short term bottom during this week, even if today's low does not hold.
The back tested stats indicate then a probable rebound into next week, probable mid to late next week.
The short term SPY price cycles are confirming that outlook.
From my perspective, it seems likely that a lower low will still occur before a multi day rebound. The 15 minute chart has yet to form a bullish divergence, but that is the time frame to watch to focus in on the short term bottom if playing the very short term moves here.
Today's price action appears to form a contracting triangle, with the implication that there will be a downward thrust out of it that would then quickly lead to a short term bottom and a rebound would ensue.
Pete
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