Gap Up Today Could Still Lead to a Morning Sell-Off Followed by a Rebound

I have scanned current market conditions with past similar scenarios, and in this case am looking at time where a really strong sell off like yesterday was followed by a gap UP.

From the ways I have looked at it, the past similar instances suggest a greater than 50% chance that even with this morning's gap up, prices could come down and make a lower low today. 

However, that would be a time to anticipate a possible rebound.

One of the scan's I looked at was:

• Yesterday SPY was down more than 3%
• Yesterday SPY closed below the lower Bollinger Band
• Today gapped up more than 1%

This was a pretty elite class of past market sell offs, and most of them demonstrated lower lows over coming weeks, though on average there was a slightly greater 3-5 day MAX gain versus MAX loss.

From all the tools I have available and the current market perspective, what I see fits the template that a rebound into next week is probable, but if it occurs, we would likely see a "re-test" of this week's lows, and possibly lower lows of significance.

Pete