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Currently stocks are in an interesting position. SPY and QQQ hit new 52 week lows, but small caps and NYSE did not.
There is a stark bullish divergence in breadth (Mclellan oscillator, etc).
So between the non-confirmation and bullish divergence in the internals, it appears possible for a substantial rebound to occur soon.
However, on a pure price backtesting basis I have looked at different criteria combinations as price makes a 52 week low, and the results are NOT universally lopsided to the bullish side right now.
However the above shows the case where a 52 we lows is made with 4 or more closes down in a row. I was a little surprised to see how bullish the skew was over the intermediate term. So in the past that type of action has been somewhat exhaustive selling pressure. So this is a bullish argument.
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This table shows times when both the 14 period RSI was in a bullish divergence at a 52 week low AND then 2 period RSI was less than 10. So it incorporates a longer term extreme sell off and loss of momentum with a shorter term extreme sell off.
Again the results here are bullish, but the skew is more notable in the first 3-10 days.
I am not going to post other data here, but in the longer term a new 52 week low is a bearish skew as it confirms the downtrend.
And without a low or close below the bollinger band, a 52 week low is not as notable for a bullish rebound.
I have elected to highlight the bullish studies above, because on the balance of everything I am looking at, it appears the next 5-6 days would more likely be bullish than bearish. But I do not view it as an extreme high probability occurrence right now.
