Bitcoin Reward/Risk Ratio - October 2022

 Here is a look at Bitcoin reward to risk assessment for the coming year.

https://www.loom.com/share/749cc58cec2a42bcb4e291b081452fcc

Based on assessment of past similar market cycles, it appears that most of the price risk of Bitcoin would be in the next 2 weeks.

There is a very high 1 year reward to risk based on past cycles.  

Of course Bitcoin has been an outstanding performing asset in its price history, so it would be expected to show strong results.

But by many metrics it could be argued that this bear market is mature, with only a minority of past instances experiencing greater than 20% declines in the next year.  Most of those instances were in earlier years when Bitcoin had a smaller market cap, and so it would be even less likely to expect similar magnitude moves currently.

Pete

Crypto Market Overview and What I Am Doing to Make Money In Crypto Right Now

 

Watch this video for an overview of crypto markets and what I am doing to prepare for the next bull market.  

https://www.loom.com/share/2a299909feed4df8a40e7af8f759697d

I am recommending/promoting a training course that I have previously taken and am using to structure my crypto trading.  If you can't get on the webinar, you could still sign up to get a reply.

https://pbirchler4.krtra.com/t/riPW7lDMGcrK

Who I think would get a lot of value from this:

• You already are putting money into, dabbling, trading, in the crypto market
• You have money that you are investing outside of 401K or IRA, etc
• You enjoy markets and want to learn more and 
• You want to stay abreast of this emerging technology
• You are mature enough to follow a plan 

Some of the most valuable things I learned in this are:

1.  How to use automated grid trading so that all order execution is automated and able to remove the barriers to execution

2.  How to make money is sideways markets (which is most of the time)

3.  How to use automated trailing grids to generate "yield" (basically by a dollar cost average rebalancing type effect) on long term crypto holdings

4.  How to use automated trading to generate cash flow from a mix of cash (or stablecoin) and crypto

5.  How to borrow against cryptoassets that you want to hold for the longer term, in effect having a multiplier effect on your assets

Pete

Beware The Blowoff In CryptoCurrencies 7-31-17

Currently there is much buzz regarding the major gains in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.  I have noted a significant email buzz and ad buzz recently marketing the hype and gains of these digital currencies.

In short, please understand that by the time this is occurring, the easy money has been made, and the unaware last buyers/suckers are going to be drawn in.

I have no expertise in this area of cryptocurrencies, so my comment here is not in regard to that.  My comment is in regard to the herd mentality and recognition of what is occurring on a investment/trading psychology level.

I recall back in 2011 as gold was really nearing its peak, that I began to see a quick change an uptick in the marketing of gold buying.  I specifically remember one video marketing piece hit my inbox laying out about how to buy physical gold, and all this stuff with the idea that you can do this and make money.

And I remember seeing it and making some commentary of it in a post or video here on the blog with the suggestion that this alone, despite all indicators and technical analysis, was a great sign that the bull market was peaking.  And in fact the timing was great, as the bull market was right near its peak in retrospect.

And currently, the change and uptick in the cryptocurrency marketing I think is a similar level of mass psychology at work, and shows a trend near its end and bubble ready to pop.

In fact, in the years that I have been following markets and the few "bubbles" I have seen in oil, gold, commodities, housing, and (more recently I think in bonds), it seems like the "public", which may well include you and me, often become aware of and take action in the market AFTER the peak already occurs.  So they/we are not just late with little gains left, we don't even get in until all the gains have been made, and there is only down to go.

So just keep this post in mind if you are part of the investment crowd and are seeing or continue to see emails and headlines hit you about the digital currencies.

Probably better to wait and watch this deflate for a couple years, and then consider whether to now buy low, or not.


Pete