Silver Breaking Out of Triangle 11-28-17

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Silver has been trading in a very tight range for a couple months.  The chart has the appearance of a symmetrical triangle, but has experienced some choppy action at both boundaries of the triangle.

Today there was an obvious close below the lower/lowest boundary of the triangle.  This occurred with a marked increase in volume, suggesting a possibly complete triangle formation with further downside action to follow.

The chart above projects some measure type moves based upon the chart and price formation.  The early October low would be the bare minimum expected move to the downside.  But the 15.00 to 14.50 over the next 1 to 4 weeks would be a reasonable move.  That seems like a large move given recent action, but just this calendar year you can see many up and down moves on the chart which of that size or greater.

SLV Option Update Heading Into Jan 2015 Expiration

As a follow up again to the current call options I am holding in SLV, I have Jan 30 expiration $17 strike calls.  They were purchased for 0.13 per contract on 12/19/14.

I just exited about half of those contracts for 0.71 which is about 440% gain.  I am holding the other half with a limit order to exit at 1.43 currently.

Currently the hourly charts of SLV are demonstrating loss on momentum and some divergence.  And given the fact that SLV is not too far from the 17 strike, it would be a shame to hold the whole position and see a pullback into next week basically take at 400% gain down to nothing.  So by exiting here I have guaranteed a profit on the whole position, and am awaiting my limit order to hit or expiration to come at the end of next week.

I made a post here linking to a TradingView post I made about SLV noting that it may be set for a vertical rally.

I exited the other Jan $15 strike calls on expiration day for about 150% gain.  They were purchased for 0.75 per contract on 11/13/14.

I am just posting this here because for the individual trader, without automated trading decisions, it is times like these that will make or break the profit.  So hopefully by thinking through a scenario like this you can improve your own trade management ability and plan contingencies.

Pete

Silver Set for Possible Vertical Rally

A week or so ago I posted about silver on TradingView and I did not repost here yet.  However I view this as an exceptional profit opportunity.  It appears likely to me that silver is set to rally for the next several weeks.

I have both in the money $15 strike, and OTM $17 strike calls on SLV.  I would suggest Jan 30 through March expirations as possible time purchases.

Pete

SLV Trendline Break

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The SLV etf is shown above. It gapped from above its 2008-2011 bull market trendline to below the trendline with a large gap down on Wednesday. I noted a similar thing in gold on Monday. When trendlines are broken with large gaps, that is typically significant. Everything still indicates this is headed much lower. From my study of how these things go, I would expect the market to correct at least down to the beginning of the final "blow off" leg up of the bull market. That would be around 17.50 at the mid 2010 consolidation level.

With options expiration today and metals set to gap up up today, I don't expect downside today. We may see a move back up toward the trendline on SLV today for a backtest of the trendline. But I would expect continuation downward next week.